ݾȷкά

ήȤʬϤϡʸǹݾܷкѤβ⵭Ҳ𤷤ޤ
ƥȤʤɤƤ³ƤޤWELCOME TO THE WORLD OF SUPER REALITY !

2014ǯ05

عĻԾʪ١إåեɤΡפϤ뤫

֥ͥ
ܷк ˻桪
 Bond(Weekly)20140526214508

塧ܹʪοܡʢ ­ʡ֣ססɽ
http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/japan-govt.-bond-advanced-chart
ɥߥ㡼
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDJPY=X&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=


ڤεϡ24˥ޥۿ줿ʲ̾εǺܤƤޤ
http://www.mag2.com/m/0001627731.html


ߤưϹ˽κǽˤʤ

롦ХΥ󥿥ӥ塼ƣãΣ£áˡ

ܼۡ
1 ߤưϹ˽κǽˤʤ
2 ĻԾʪʱߤʪĤư


1 ߤưϹ˽κǽˤʤ

ʿѳΣ裲ν֥١βϡ꡼ޥ󥷥å2008ǯ10Ȥʤꡢ,߲ޤϼ˥饤ʾζʤɤͳǤ

λγȹˤĤơܹפΤ륫롦Хϡ̣Ȥ򣴷15ƣãΣ£ΥȤǽҤ٤Ƥޤ

롦ХˤĤƤϥͥåȤǡܹĤζ徺ƤʤޤǤͽۤƤ뤾פʤɤ餹ͤ⤤ޤ롦ХܹĤΥͥƥ֡٥åȡҤˤ2011ǯ2012ǯδ֤˵ۤ»ФԤƤΤϡ礭ʱ߰¥ȥɤޤƤʤΤǤ

롦ХäƤ礭ʱ߰¥ȥɡפϡޤƤޤ

߰¤ϡ2012ǯ10ޥԥåǻϤޤޤ2013ǯ22ΥСʥ󥭸ƣңµĹΣѣŽ̾ȯʹߡ߰®٤߲2014ǯȱ߰¥ȥɤϻߤޤꡢ102ڤƤޤϥ㡼ȤǧƤ館Ф狼Ȼפޤ2013ǯĹⲼ򵯤֣.åפƤޤˡ

롦ХΡץإåեɤäƤΤϡʾ礭ʱ߰¥ȥɤǤ

ɣͣƤ4кѸ̤ǡޤǤܷкѤФ빥Ūɾᡢ٥Υߥ˷ٹϤޤɣͣƤΥեΥߥȡӥ֥󥷥㡼ϡܤκ꤬ŪˤʤꡢȤοϤäǽ롣줬ܹĤƭȤʤäɽ졢פȸޤ

IMFǯĹ̤ܤˤϷٹ2014/04/09 륹ȥ꡼ȡ㡼ʥ
http://jp.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304364704579489972053887530.html

ĤˣɣͣƤΥեΥߥȤܹĤƭȺ˸ڤ롦Хδ¬󥹤˶ŤƤޤ15ãΣ£ǤΥ롦ХؤΥ󥿥ӥ塼ϡƹζͻ񥵥ȡإХ塼٤Ǥ夲Ƥޤ

Why Japanese bonds look 'terrible': Kyle Bass(2014/04/15ãΣ£)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101584588

Kyle Bass Notes Japans Debt Crisis Crash(2014/04/15ValueWalk )
http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/04/kyle-bass-notes-japans-debt-crisis-crash/

ƹζͻͥǤãΣ£ˤϡܹĤߤǥ롦Хб餷ޤãΣ£äϥХΤȤܷкѤκɾȤΰ͡פȸäƤޤ

εΤʤǥ롦ХгΣ裲ʵˤĤơ,ߤγεФƹĻԾǤ꤬ۤȤưʤäȤܤƤޤʪ1448014510Ĺ6.06.5ˡ

ޤǤϳȹĤϾ徺ˡȹĤϲˤΤѥǤ롦ХϼΤ褦˸äƤޤʻ䤬䤤󤷤Ƥޤˡ

֣裲ʳǤϡĻԾǤΡּؤƨסflight to qualityˤʤäĻԾϲѲʤä,ߤȤ礭ʵͤ碌ȡܹĤϤʤ󤤱餸򤷤衢롣

... Kyle Bass noted Fridays swan dive in the Japanese Nikkei did not produce a corresponding flight to quality in the Japanese bond market, as one might expect. Japanese bonds are acting pretty terrible in light of their equity market, Bass said in the interview. Japanese bond market hasnt gone anywhere, Bass said, So well see what happens.

ХäϸʪĻԾ򺸱ʪĻԾǹͤȡ狼䤹ȻפޤХ塼εμɮԤäơХθޤȤȼΤ褦ˤʤޤ

,ߤγεǤϡߤϣ߰ʾα߹ˤʤä104ߤ10160ءˡΡ߹䤬ʪ˹IJʤβɤƨۡסescape valveˤˤʤäƤ롣ϡαߤƨۡפȤƤεǽʤĤޤǡ˲̤뤫ɤʡ whether the yen can serve as an "escape valve." ˡ

̲ߤǤϤɤ餬ǽ̲ߤưϡ̳Ǥ˽κǽΤˤʤʣ..ɮԡˡ̲ߤαߤĤưȻ䤿Ϲͤפȥ롦Хϸäʢ ˡ

ΡߡȤƨۡסescape valveˤˤĤƤϡ絬ϴºľŪƯƤ븽ʪĤ⡢ʪĤǹͤƤߤƤ鸽ʪĤƤϤƤߤȤ狼䤹Ȼפޤ


ڣ ĻԾʪ

ߤư2012ǯ10̤ɤäƤߤȤ狼ޤƹƣң¤ζͻͽۡݾкѤưˤäƱߤְ̲ߡפȤ졢߹ⷹˤʤޤƤλϡ2013ǯΡְۼ¡פȯɽʹߡճĹ֤˵ڤ֤ΤǤ

2013ǯΣƣң¤ζͻαƶΤۤ˱߹װˤʤä󤲤ȡƱǯƹΥǥեưˡǯäƤοкѤưɡƥˤ륦饤ʴ󤲤ޤʥϣˤϷ齬ԤäƤޤˡ

Τ褦˱ߤְ̲ߡסֻƨפȤʤкѤݾΤʤˤ˵äƤΤǡΤӤ˱ߤ߹ؿ졢ȥåȤʪĤƤΤǤ

2013ǯ˹䤬ꤷƻϤ᤿絬Ϥʶͻ°ʹߡδ֤礭ʱ߰¥ȥɤδ֤ǤʪĤ졢ķ¤Υȥɤ߰¥ȥɤƱ˵Ƥޤ絬϶ͻ°ϡɬ⤽ǤϤޤˡ

ܹʪοܡ㡼ȡInvesting.com
http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/japan-govt.-bond-advanced-chart
ֽ­סʡ֣ססɽ狼䤹Ȼפޤ

ƥɥ/ߥ㡼ȡʥ֥롼С
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDJPY:CUR/chart

2013ǯ51015ƣ23ܹĤθʪĤζĹˤ礭Ⲽʡ֣.åסˤϡ굡ڤˤʪĤƳƤޤʲȡˡ

23λԾưȺؤ԰¡ס2013/05/25Yahoo!˥塼
http://bylines.news.yahoo.co.jp/kubotahiroyuki/20130525-00025192/

߰¤οʹԤ˹碌Ƴ굡ڤʪĤȤƤȤءкѤȹݾѲǡְ̲ߡפαߤ㤦ȤˤʤꡢȰʪĤƤޤ
ĤޤʪĤޤΤ򡢱ߤ뤳ȡʱ߹ˤɤǤΤǤ줬롦ХäֱߤƨۤȤƵǽƤפȤ̣Ǥ㤨ƤߤС¡ΡۡפդεήɤǤ褦ˡߤ㤤ᤵ뤳ȤʪĤβʤΤɤǤΤǤ

ڷ꤬ɽ̡ʪפˤСȤˤ2014ǯμϣ.Ǥä٤ȤˤοϡΣΣ󤫤®˾徺ǹϿƤޤ

ʪʪץʢ H26/05/23 ڥȤإǡǺܤưƤޤ
http://www.tse.or.jp/market/data/sector/index.html

Ūˤϱ߰¤ֿʤФޤͤǸκǯ絬ϴ¤麣ޤǤαߤβϣ٤ǡ99ߢ102ߡˡ2012ǯ10Ȥ˿ʤ߰¤Σϡ¤ϡԤǡ®Ƥ2013ǯ絬ϴȯɽΰ˿ʤǤޤ2012ǯ102013ǯޤǡˡ
Ĥޤꥫ롦ХˤȤäơ2013ǯ絬ϴ°ʹߤα߰¤ϡޤޤʤΤǤ

ʡ78 - 12/10/1,99 - 13/4/4,94 - 13/6/14,100 - 13/11/12,
102 - 14/4/24

ܤζͻԾ˱ƶͿ룳ĤΥ٥ȡ

12014ǯ٤ηоֻ⤷Ϸо̸
2ˣǣУɣơǯΩΩˡ͡ˤΣˤϤޤ
ΨγοŸ
3ᤱУȤ⸫Ƥˤɲô

ˤäư߰¡ؤ礭Ȥ򥫥롦ХΡץإåեɤäƤޤ

λ

ͻݺǽƹġ(3 кѤϴˤؿʤǤ)

֥ͥ
к ˻桪
img_0

ڡ


ڤεϣ10˥ޥۿ줿ʲεʬ䤷ƷǺܤƤޤ
http://www.mag2.com/m/0001627731.html


кѤϴˤؿʤǤ
פ̿ޤȺǽ

ܼ
1 ͢нŤΥХ
2 ĤΥޥкɸ
3 ԤΣĤɸ
4 ¤Ȥ饵ӥȤؤθѥե
5 кѤβפθ
6 ǽƹ


6ۺǽƹ

Ȥǡ륬󡦥졼ĹΥϡ2013ǯβưʹߡηкѲפΤʤǤι¤פˤĤƤϥݥƥ֤ɾʬϤ򤷤ƤΤǤإץȡǥȡ٥ȤشƤƤ뵭ɤ¤ꡢɡХ󥭥󥰤ɺĸꡢưХ֥ǰꡢƺ̳ФƤΡͻפˤĤƤƧ߹⤬ޤ

ƹδ֤ζͻδطˤƹͭΥʺʬƹİʳؤʬˤβǽʤɤˤĤƤεҤϤޤ

Ǥ⥷ɡХ󥭥󥰤ưХ֥ηǰʤɤεФθ̤ʤˡкѤκͽ¬뤳ȤϤǤʤȻפޤ
ˤĤƴĵ󤬡31եɥĽ֥եפεطкѤεͤ뤫ˤĤΤ٤9ĤΤȡ٤ƤѤƷǺܤǤ椫餳ζͻ򰷤äΣѤޤ

4ʿѥХ֥ĥƤΤѼԤȸƤФ륨ΥߥȤΥޡեСϡˤ礭ʿѥХ֥뤬¸ߤפȽҤ٤ĹΨ㲼ˤкѤꥹ㸺ȤŦ
ά
6ɡХ󥭥ϡ꡼ޥ󡦥åΤ褦ʴβǽϤʤŪʶԤյϤϥɡХ󥭥󥰤˾ꡢϵۤγ߽ͭƤ뤫

кѤư9ĤʬϡȻ (2014/04/05 Record China)
http://topics.jp.msn.com/economy/china/article.aspx?articleid=3940827

ͻ⤷ʤεˤĤƤϡξκǽŪʲȤơ̤ƹĤѤϤȤޤλˤĤƤϣգ£ӡ륹ޥͥȤκǹǤԡ쥭ե꡼ɥޥ᤬2013ǯεʬϤƤޤե꡼ɥޥϳɾIJƹˤΥСǤ⤢ޤʣգ£ӡ֤ܵͭεϤĥ˥С롦Х󥯡ˡ

Chinas American Bailout?2013/08/22Project Syndicate
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-the-fed-may-bail-out-china-s-financial-system-by-alexander-friedman

ե꡼ɥޥϡǶͻ硢ԥƥؤ絬ϤʻǤϡեʤɤ򤱤뤿̱ƤιĤܤϽȬ塢̤ƹĤѤϤ뤷ۤϤʤʤȸޤơˤä̱ʤɤηкư񤬼ͥƥ֤ʱƶϡ˹ͤƤ⡢餯äȾʤƺѤȤƤޤͳΰĤȤкѤĤƤȰ㤤͢а¸æѤžƤ뤳Ȥʤɤ󤲤Ƥޤ

裱͢ФΤȤǡ͢СƳƳηкĹǥؤžϡܤĹǯԤ˾ǤΤǤפȽ񤭤ޤηкĹǥžϡ̱ιݲͻפȤȤˡܤˤ롢̤ƹĤѤ鵯кư򸫿ΤžȤ֤ŤȻפޤ

ºݤ˺ǯꡢƹεIJ𤵤줿򸫤ȡƹĤѤʺʬƹİʳؤʬˤϤ뤳ȤˡƹϤƤȤפʸФƤƤޤ

ʰʲΣĤΥ󥯤кѰĴѰUSCCˤˤΤǤPDFե

Chinas Foreign Exchange Reserves and Holdings of U.S. Securities(2014/03/21USCC
http://www.uscc.gov/Research/china%E2%80%99s-foreign-exchange-reserves-and-holdings-us-securities

April 2014 Trade Bulletin(2014/04/04USCCˡ
http://www.uscc.gov/Research/april-2014-trade-bulletin

March 2014 Trade Bulletin(2014/03/07USCCˡ
http://www.uscc.gov/trade-bulletin/march-2014-trade-bulletin


Ϣ
ƹϣѣŷ³ζͻн褹2013/10/01 ۹
http://blogs.yahoo.co.jp/bluesea735/38157620.html

λ

ڡ

祯åꤤޤ

֥󥭥󥰤

ڣ кѤϴˤؿʤǤ롼̱Ԥζͻۤ

111

Ѷɤǥ٥ƥμۡʥ


ڡ1 кѤϴˤؿʤǤ


ڤεϣ10˥ޥۿ줿ʲεʬ䤷ƷǺܤΤǤ
http://www.mag2.com/m/0001627731.html


кѤϴˤؿʤǤ
פ̿ޤȺǽ

ܼ
1 ͢нŤΥХ
2 ĤΥޥкɸ
3 ԤΣĤɸ
4 ¤Ȥ饵ӥȤؤθѥե
5 кѤβפθ
6 ǽƹ


ڣ ԤΣĤɸ

ϰ̳ʤɤΤΣĤΥޥкɸָϽСʪΰꡢǣģĹפϡ̱Ԥζͻ٤Ƥޤ

27ΥεǤϡ̱μۤͻˤϰ̳ƱͤʤȤҤ٤Ƥޤ

ۤϤҤ٤̱ԤϡĤɸʣǣģСˤã褦ȤƤ櫓ǤϤʤ̱ϡʪꡢѡǣģĹݼ٤ȤŪ¿ŪǽפȸƤ֤ΤȹפͻιȤߤäƤ롣ǸΡʹݼ٤Ȥװϡ̲ˤƿ̱θ¤ǧ뤿˲ä줿ס
ۤϡ֡ӤΡ˸ȤƤϡ¿ŪǽΤʤǣĤɸΤ줾ˡɤȤƤƤȤȤפȶĴ

The PBOC, he argued, does not pursue a single target. Instead, it frames monetary policy in accordance with what he called a multi-objective function comprised of goals for price stability, employment, GDP growth, and the external balance-of-payments - the latter factor added to recognize the PBOCs authority over currency policy.
The trick, Zhou stressed, is to assign weights to each of the four goals in the multi-objective policy function.

̱䤬ݼ٤ɸΰĤΤˤƤ뤳Ȥϡ䤬оֻФƤбΤˤƤ餺Ⱦ֤ƤΤоŪǡͻκߤޤ˺ƸƤ٤Ǥ礦


ڣ ¤Ȥ饵ӥȤؤθѥե

θѾκǿξȤơȣӣ£äΣΥӥηʵưݡȤܤǤƹԤ⿮ꤵƤȣӣ£ä®ǤϡΥӥθѾˤĤưʲΤ褦𤵤Ƥޤ

ӥȤϫƯԿ2013ǯκǤ⤤ӤȤʤꡢȤ櫓ӥȤǤθϽФ¤ȤǸƤϫƯԿ껦ơӥȡ¤ȹ碌ƣ֤θѤä⤿餷

In contrast, higher volumes of new work led service providers to expand their payroll numbers at the fastest rate since June 2013. Notably, job creation at service providers offset job shedding at manufacturers, and led to the first increase of employment at the composite level for five months.

HSBC China Services PMI - Mar 2014 2014/04/03 HSBCݡ
http://www.hsbc.com/1/2/emerging-markets/em-index/purchasing-managers-index

ܤι¤פηײ˹碌ơ¤Ȥ饵ӥȤؤθѥեȤʤȤ򼨤ƤޤޤФΣΥˤС֥ӥϣǯΣǣģФΣפޤǤˤʤäƤƤޤ


ڣ кѤβפθ

εκǸηʬ˽פǤ狼ˤȻפΤǵΤƤƧޤưʲˤޤȤƤߤޤ

ϰ̳ۤʤɤֽ̤ʷкĹɸסflexible growth targetingˤϡĤɸʣǣģĹΨˤ˹«ʤʹΩƼԤƱǡкĹηײϡָѡʪꡢǣģĹʹݼ١ˡפʤɤʣΥޥкɸʷȤäΤȤĴɸꤵƤ롣줫кѤǵưȤưؤбϡʸ̮Ǥ褯θɬפ롣

εˤϤۤˤ⡢кѤ®ƤȤʤʤܤϼηкѤθ̤ˤĤƳڴѻ뤷ƤΤȤפͳ񤫤Ƥޤ


ڡ
ڡ1 кѤϴˤؿʤǤ


祯åꤤޤ

ͻ()󥭥󥰤

ڣ кѤϴˤؿʤǤ롼͢Фȥޥкɸ


򸫤 ʥ


ڤεϣ10˥ޥۿ줿ʲεʬ䤷ƷǺܤΤǤ
http://www.mag2.com/m/0001627731.html


кѤϴˤؿʤǤ
פ̿ޤȺǽ

ܼ
1 ͢нŤΥХ
2 ĤΥޥкɸ
3 ԤΣĤɸ
4 ¤Ȥ饵ӥȤؤθѥե
5 кѤβפθ
6 ǽƹ


ߤкѤˤĤƤϡΥǡкѤϤ褤躣ǯפʤɤȤäʥꥹȤˤ뵭ܤäƤ褦ˡͻƤкĹθ®οʹԤˤäͻȤǰŪ˥ޥߤǹޤäƤ褦Ǥ

ƤͻƤȯ˹¤פ䤷ʤᡢĹˤäƹȷкѤδ򤷤ȤڤˤƤϡٹܤƱǤܤΰˤͻ˰¸᤮Ƥơ¤פʤʤʤǤʤΤФơơֹżפǹ¤פʤǤ褦Ǥ

ιǤϡܤΥͥåȤޥߤȤƤкѤΤʤǡܡƳ¤פɤΤ褦ʥ󥻥ץȤǿʤƤΤˤޤȤƤߤޤʤɡŪ˺ǰΥʥꥪϡ¤פʤޤʤܷкѤȤιĻԾ줬˴٤ꡢкѤ¤פ¸Ĺ륷ʥꥪǤǰΥʥꥪꤹȤ̣ޤơкѤФ붯ɤΩ줫ޤȤƤޤ


ڣ ͢нŤΥХ

Ǵɤȯɽǰפϡ͢ФǯƱ棶󸺡͢Ʊ󸺤Ȥʤäάˣǰ׼٤ϣɥιͽۤϣɥιäסʣ10

͢ФϺǯΣߤޤϤĤŦƤޤ͢гۤۤ͢򺹤ǰ׼٤229ɥֻǤ

гǰססɽˡʥ֥롼С
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/123-N3SMB36NKMZZ01.html

ι¤סʤޤϥХ󥹡ˤȤϡ͢нŤƳĹǥ뤫Ŀ;˼Ƴ줿кĹǥؤžǤʤΤкѤԤˤĤƤζɤ餹С͢ФοӤθϹ¤פäƤ븽ݤˤʤޤ
кѤȤΥƥ֥󡦣ӡˤС͢СƳƳؤηкĹǥžϡܤĹǯԤ˾ǤΤǤȸޤ


ڣ ĤΥޥкɸ

13̱ɽǵԲ񸫤ַкĹϽФ˽֤ȶĴפƤޤޤϰѰκ轵ĹΨ뤫뤫ϸϽФۤɽפǤϤʤȤθ򼨤ƤפǤʲȡˡ

롢꤬Ĺɸǧ2014/03/13
http://jp.reuters.com/article/topNews/idJPTYEA2C03S20140313?sp=true

кѤȤǤ륹ƥ֥󡦣ӡˤСкѤͤݤˡƤʬδ¬ڤϡܤޤˡкĹΨȤˤ᤮Ƥȸޤϸ륬󡦥졼Ĺǡߡƥإ㥯ݾξեǤ

ԡ ƹкѰĴѰ2013ǯˤСԥ륬󡦥졼ϥեɤǤͭǤʡChina Investment CorporationˤȤϻ̤ǿĤʤäƤޤͭƹĤΤ٤ƤϤʣãɣáˤ㤷ͭƤޤʢ 2010ǯˡ
China Investment Corporation: Recent Developments in Performance, Strategy, and Governance
кѰĴѰ2013/06/13PDFե
http://www.uscc.gov/Research/china-investment-corporation-recent-developments-performance-strategy-and-governance

ܤ˳Ť줿ǯ15ȯŸեǤϡϰѰκ̳δ֤Ǽ蘆ޤϰѰΤϡƹĤʣãɣáˤĹãţϤǤϰϼΤ褦˽Ҥ٤Ǥ

ĹɸǡĤƤΣĤɸʣǣģСˤ׻뤹뤳Ȥ¾æ餷Ƥ롣ܤϺĤΥޥкɸ׻뤷ƤꡢϸϽСʪΰꡢƣǣģĹǤ롣꤬Ƕᡢȿ̱ĤФǯǤ⣳ĤνɸϤν֤˵ܤƤꡢǣģĹϺǸˤ˵ܤƤ롣ʲ

The End of Chinese Central Planning2014/03/27 ƥ֥󡦣ӡ
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stephen-s--roach-reports-that-the-country-s-top-economic-officials-have-all-but-abandoned-traditional-growth-targets

Ͼ嵭εǡϰ̳ΡкĹΨϽФǽפȤͤˤդäƤޤ

ɼԤϼºݤˤϡʲƤδ¬ڤˤϤ뤫ƬǡǣģĹ켫ΤưǤפȤäϫƯȤ򡢤פʴؿȹͤƤ롣

2013ǯܤûԾǤζλˤƹ񥵥ȤˡηкĹΨˤʤäҲ˽ưʾäΤȤäޤкĹΨľŪ˼ҲŪ˽ưפװȤʤΤϼȡ¶ȹ⥤եǤ꤬ȿ̱ĤФǯǡĤνɸϽСʪΰꡢǣģĹν֤ǵܤƤΤϡƳˤ罰ҲۤΥȤͥ٤ɽΤǤ礦

кѤι¤סԤθϼ˻ߡ2013/07/19
http://jp.reuters.com/article/topNews/idJPTYE96I02Q20130719?sp=true

ηкѲפ򸫤ƤޤȡӥȤεϤ礷㥵ӥȤǤθϽС礭ɸȤơΥӥȤ¤ȡ߶Ȥ;ϫƯԤۼѡн褹ȤäʤǤ뤳ȤƤȤޤΤȤޤƥϡ2013ǯΣ̰ʹߡץȡǥȤΥȤǡΡ㹽¤פ䤤˿ʤߤĤĤ뤫⤷ڤȤΥΤ̤˿ʤǤƤȻפޤ

Misreading Chinese Rebalancing 2013/07/29 ץȡǥȡ
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-mismeasure-of-china-s-rebalancing-by-stephen-s--roach

3ӥУͣɤϷʶʵ߲ǰϻĤ2014/04/03
http://jp.reuters.com/article/topNews/idJPTYEA3207I20140403?sp=true


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